2023-05-10 14:56:27
IMF: better short-term growth with credit risk in China
The International Monetary Fund has issued new analysis, suggesting China’s short-term economic prospects have improved.
The new IMF report covers a broad overview of the economy, with the long-term outlook remaining much the same as before.
However, IMF Chief China Representative, Alfred Schipke, says a recent drive to increase spending in China is helping prop-up economic prospects in the near-term.
"In our view, the short-term outlook is somewhat better, in part because of the stimulus that has been provided to the economy."
Schipke says while this push toward more spending has helped stabilize growth, he says the trend comes with certain risks.
"What you can see is that the system continues to leverage up, more credit, more credit to the corporate sector. The corporate sector is therefore more leveraged. So there is the risk that there could be spillover to the financial sector."
One area the IMF is keeping close tabs on is the rapid rise in home prices in China, particularly in the major cities.
Alfred Schipke says the IMF believes it’s important for the to keep a close watch on the property sector in the short-term.
"The real estate part of the economy is an important part. It might be appropriate to use we call macro-prudential tools. So that could for instance imply changing the loan-to-value ratio for second mortgages."
The IMF’s China chief also suggests that over the longer-term, the will have to keep watch on the level of debt currently held here in China, particularly in the corporate sector.
"Now when it comes to the credit itself, it is important to call harden budget constraints. So that companies that should not be getting credit are ultimately rationed out."
This week’s IMF report also suggests there remains a wide disparity of growth among the different regions in the country.
It also says growth in the services sector continues outpacing industrial expansion.
国际货币基金组织表示
中国短期经济增长伴随信贷风险
国际货币基金组织发布了最新的分析，暗示中国短期经济前景将有所提升。
新的国际货币基金组织报告涵盖了广泛的中国经济概述，经济长期前景并无太大变化。
然而，国际货币基金组织驻中国首席代表Alfred Schipke称，近日促进中国消费增长的驱动力有助于提振短期内经济前景。
“在我们看来，短期的前景更好，这部分出于提供给经济的刺激。”
Schipke说，尽管刺激消费有助于中国经济增长稳定，但也伴随着一定的风险。
“你可以看出，中国经济系统在继续杠杆投资，企业领域信贷增加。因此，企业领域举债经营的情况更加严重。所以这种情况有向金融领域蔓延的风险。”
国际货币基金组织一直在密切关注的一个领域就是快速上涨的中国房价，尤其在大城市。
Alfred Schipke 说，国际货币组织相信，。
“房地产是经济的重要组成部分。使用宏观审慎工具可能比较合适。比如，这可能意味着转变第二次抵押贷款的担保品贷放率。
国际货币基金组织还建议，长期看来，，尤其是企业领域的负债水平。
“谈到信贷本身，使用硬性预算约束是很重要的。因此，不应该获得信贷的公司最终只能获得定额贷款。”
本周的国际货币基金组织报告还建议，国家不同地区之间还存在广泛的增长差距。
报告还说，服务领域的增长会继续超过工业扩张。
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